During SHOT Show’s NSSF Research Breakfast it was announced that NSSF would be launching what could best be called a new NICS Dashboard. Their ‘enhanced NICS analytics platform’ is a new feature on the NSSF website and is now available through the NSSF members portal.
So, yes, it’s only available to NSSF members, but it’s also free to those members. You can access it by signing in then clicking on ‘Industry Research’ in the top menu. From there you’ll see a mosaic of research options. Click on the one labeled ‘NICS Reporting & Analysis.’ Don’t confuse it with the ‘NICS Data’ option which gives you the non-interactive monthly announcement and access to the supporting charts and graphs.
Designed in conjunction with GunBroker.com's Outdoor Analytics, which draws its data based on over 34 million sales transactions accounting for $11 billion in sales from more than 8 million users, the new dashboard gives NSSF members a valuable tool to dive into the NICS numbers beyond the top-line totals or NSSF-adjusted totals.
During his presentation, GunBroker.com's Allen Forkner went through the various features available to members and how those features might be utilized to better understand the trends in firearms sales.
He explained that “the NICS Reporting and Analysis tool was designed to take the basic NICS check data and present it in an easier to understand format with a variety of visualizations to help brands, reps, and retailers quickly understand the information that can help them make business decisions.”
The interactive dashboard breaks down the background check data by state, by day and by type, providing rankings and movement. This makes it a valuable new planning tool for retailers, sales reps, distributors and manufacturers.
For instance, the distribution by state is a great tool for brands and reps to get a handle on where the sales are still strong and where they are lagging. If you have backorders, for example, it helps you know how to prioritize. Or, if you’re trying to figure out where you can try and grow distribution, this is also a good bit of data to consider.
The dashboard’s month-over-month feature gives you state-level data, so brands can see if the national trend matches up with their internal sales data or if there’s an outlier somewhere that they are over/under-performing in, and can address that if needed.
NICS check types by state (like Arizona’s above) allows you to evaluate the market at the state level. If you have a new bolt-action coming out, you may want to prioritize deliveries to top dealers in the hot long gun states, and move the big handgun states a bit lower in the launch plan.
This is also great for those utilizing a regional ad budget where you can target promotion of a new pistol to the hot handgun states.
The ability to see up-to-date state rankings can help brands and reps understand the movement in the market at the state-by-state level. Additionally you can see in near real time the impact of new laws, court rulings and “high profile news events” on the markets.
The left position is the Previous Year ranking, next the Previous Quarter, then Previous Month and finally Current Month.
For example, you can watch the steep climb in Massachusetts ahead of the new legislation taking effect, then the drop off the cliff after it became law. This ranking can be shown for Adjusted Checks, Handguns Checks, Long Gun Checks and Total Checks.
The Daily Checks for the Previous 12 Months chart shows the daily NICS checks over the past year, and can help guide brands or retailers as to when to run promotions to get people into the stores, when they need to have events as people are ready to buy, and when they might decide to drop a new product.
It also shows the peak days we expect (Saturdays, Christmas Eve Day, Day before Thanksgiving) but also a few hot days that may not be as expected (Mother’s Day, day after Tax Day). This not only helps retailers plan for inventory and in-store promotions but also when to increase staffing to accommodate the influx of customers.
The state level data, like that shown above for Arizona helps the sales rep group or local retailer monitor the health of the state’s business. They can compare this to their own data to determine if it’s on trend or an outlier, and why that might be. It’s also good to look at the 24 month trends to see if the marketing plan is properly aligned with the seasonality of buying.
The state data includes a listing of important regulations and restrictions for the sale of firearms. This is particularly useful for sales reps taking on a new territory, but also for those media members who have yet to memorize what it takes to buy a firearm in all 50 states.
Compare the State Restrictions for Arizona (above) to those of California (below).
As you can see from the comparison of neighboring states Arizona and California, the ability to buy – as well as sell – a firearm in the two states is vastly different. This data can also be incredibly valuable to smaller manufacturers expanding their dealer distribution into new states, allowing them to determine if their current product is a good fit or will face unexpected hurdles in a particular state.
NSSF’s new NICS analytics has several other features and if you are an NSSF member I suggest you wade into it when you have some free time. You’ll probably come up with ways to evaluate the data against your own sales data to adjust your business’ strategy, and hopefully do so quicker than before.
— Paul Erhardt, Managing Editor, the Outdoor Wire Digital Network
