The Butterfly Effect is a significant part of chaos theory. In simple terms, it says that seemingly insignificant changes in nonlinear systems can result in drastic changes down the road. Initially, that was demonstrated by a butterfly flapping its wings influencing a tornado weeks later.
Fortunately, I’m no theoretician. But I do know that the latest flap over a butterfly’s wings has, once again, caused folks you’d think were allies to take opposite sides in a move proposed by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service.
Monarch butterflies have kicked up a windstorm in Washington. Image by USDA with permission.
The latest move would place the monarch butterfly on the endangered species list. These once common, black and orange butterflies have declined by an estimated ninety percent over the past couple of decades. The latest population count/estimate says we now have the second smallest monarch population on record.
Every summer, eastern monarch fly from the northern United States and southern Canada to winter in high-elevation fir forests in Mexico. Populations are determined by measuring the area of trees turned “vivid orange” by the clusters of butterflies.
Scientists say 15 acres of occupied forests is the minimum threshold for these vital pollinators to be above extinction levels. The winter 2023 count: 2.2 acres. This year’s count is also estimated to be “bleak.”
Environmental groups petitioned the USFWS for the endangered declaration in 2014. In 2020, they were placed on the “candidate waiting list” for protection. Last week’s announcement of the intention to place them on the endangered list is the result of, you guessed it, a suit filed by the Center for Biological Diversity. The suit was to force a listing date from the USFWS.
With declining pollinators, from honeybees to monarch butterflies, it would seem agriculture would be in favor of the proposed listing. As it turns out, that’s not necessarily the case.
On Tuesday, several agricultural groups made their positions known. They ranged from neutral to negative. The National Corn Growers Association, a farmer-led trade organization representing more than 300,000 farmers said that while they “looked forward to providing input on how we can protect monarch butterflies,” they had concerns that those measures not “disrupt critical agricultural activities that help fuel and feed the world.”
The American Farm Bureau Federation’s President Zippy Duvall said the organization looked forward to a dialogue on the issue, but remained committed to “the larger goal of modernizing the Endangered Species Act to protect wildlife and promote voluntary measures to protect at-risk species.”
The American Soybean Association has called on the USFWS to hold a “transparent, science-based process,” adding that farmers are “proud to be part of the solution when it comes to protecting both the environment and the species.”
There wasn’t universal agreement among the agricultural community. Texas Agriculture Commissioner Sid Miller called the proposal “the latest example of federal government overreach which cripples agriculture and rural development.” He also said the proposal “isn’t about protecting monarchs. It’s nothing more than a parting shot from the Biden Administration, a desperate move to impose its heavy-handed, radical climate change agenda on hard-working Americans before they leave office and sanity returns to our nation’s capital on January 20th.”
Miller, it should be noted, was one of the short-list candidates for Secretary of Agriculture in the Trump administration before Brooke Rollins was announced as the nominee.
A more reasoned response came from Iowa Ag Secretary Mike Naig who said the proposal “underscores the importance of the work that Iowa agriculture has been doing proactively to incorporate monarch and pollinator habitat into conservation practices around the state.”
As the monarchs flap their wings toward winter habitat, seems political lips will be flapping in equal-if not greater-measure.
The Proposed Rule was published in the Federal Register on December 12, 2024, formally kicking off the 90-day public review and comment period, which will close on March 12, 2025. The USFWS will then have 12 months to conduct a status review and determine whether to (1) publish a final listing rule, (2) withdraw its proposal, or (3) extend its proposal.
We’ll keep you posted.
— Jim Shepherd
