The Babylon Bee, my favorite place for “fake news you can trust,” may have -once again- summed up the general mood of the country with this headline: “Nation Takes Solace In Fact That No Matter Who Wins Election, The Political Text Messages Will Stop.”

Having unsubscribed (despite never having subscribed) to 237 different “phone” numbers that have so far sent me 943 unwanted text messages (they’re still coming and I’m keeping count), I get the exhaustion. Never-ending “crisis” messages from politicians are like the politicians themselves: irritating, indefatigable, and invasive.

237 blocked numbers later, the frantic political calls keep coming. Text messages, robo-dialers and even a few live humans are determined to separate us from our remaining after-tax dollars.

Like the pols sending them, their mission is clear: drive us all to a state of red/blue desperation over Tuesday’s looming election day so we’ll part with our after-tax dollars to help them retain their recession-proof positions.

I care, deeply, about the country. But not one whit for the relentless hacks who should be governing rather than groveling for our money. They’ve either watched or created crises that have whipsawed everyone, all while telling us they’re working tirelessly to make our lives better. Unfortunately, mostly for us, they know as little about our lives as they do about life on the bottom of the Mariannas Trench -and care even less.

Going into November and an election on Tuesday, here are a couple of economic insights from our industry they’d probably prefer we all overlook.

• Shimano, the global recreation equipment manufacturer, reports a thirty-one percent drop in net income for the first nine months of this fiscal year. The company attributes it to a drop in demand, concerns over the Ukraine, and tensions in the middle east. Sounds vaguely familiar, doesn't it?

• The Southwick Market Pulse for Q3 doesn’t paint a grim picture going into 2025 for retailers, but it’s not rainbows or unicorns, either. Retail sales last quarter continued to slow. There was a 5% year-over-year decrease in firearms sales (although shotgun sales were up) and ammunition sales dropped, too. Optics had some bright spots, with red dot sights up 8%, but “traditional scopes” decreased by the same 8%.

According to Southwick, the firearms consumer perspective “continues to evolve” as the year progresses, attributing that evolution to “somewhat positive news on the economy and uncertainty surrounding the presidential election.”

The Southwick Market Pulse also points to a couple of cogent points. Concerns over inflation, changes in personal income, and economic uncertainty are cited by both hunters and shooters as primary reasons for purchasing fewer firearms in Q3.

On the other hand, respondents in Q3 say that safety concerns/self-defense, further restrictions on firearms, domestic politics, and global unrest/conflict were the top factors driving the decisions to buy more firearms.

That’s upside news with downside societal implications. We’ll be talking more in the future about what some in the industry are already calling “Gun Culture 3.0” - they’re people who believe in more action and less talk. They’re also red and blue -meaning that even some diehard liberals are starting to see the error of their ways. Pendulums can- and do- swing both ways.

As far as the cloudy crystal ball, sixty six percent of consumers said they planned more ammunition purchases, with forty-four percent saying they planned to add accessories in Q4.

With inventory sitting on shelves and consumers reluctant to spend, it’s reasonable to expect some discounting going into the end of 2024.

A significant percentage of respondents (30%) say they’re “neutral or undecided” as to whether they’re going to make additional purchases. Like many of us, they’re probably sitting on the fence to determine from which direction political winds will be gusting.

All in all, Southwick Associates is sticking with their earlier market outlook: NICS checks will remain between 2016 and 2017 levels (that’s “flat to down” 5% from 2023). It’s far from the boom of Covid, but it appears there’s still plenty of interest in the outdoor sports.

During Ruger’s Q3 conference call yesterday, CEO Kris Killoy commented on the fact that NASGW distributors were asking if there were discounts or incentives ahead. “There’s definitely some pressure out there,” Killoy said, “and there are lots of discounting and promotional efforts out there right now from others.”

“We normally don’t participate,” he said, “but there may be some incentive to do that in 2025.”

For a company with nearly $100 million in the bank and no debt, that’s a certain sign that some companies are over-produced and looking at turning inventories, even at reduced prices.

The hangups that appear to be keeping consumers from buying are familiar ones: inflation, domestic politics, economic uncertainty, crime, global unrest, and changes in personal income.

The more things change, the more they seem to remain the same.

We’ll keep you posted.

— Jim Shepherd