This week’s annual gathering of the National Association of Sporting Goods Wholesalers (NASGW) will give us our first look at what many want to know: what we might expect as business in 2025.
A lot of variables go into predicting how 2025 will shake out. 2024 was predicted early on to see overall firearms sales rise a modest 2 to 5 percent. By September, that was revised to a downturn of anywhere from 10 to 15 percent.
Inflation concerns still impact the buying power of end users. That’s one concern for 2025. Another is the presidential election where one candidate’s win can (might) signal smooth sailing for four years or going the other way could turn the industry on its head via non-stop legislative and executive order attacks.
Either outcome could spur sales. That depends on which candidate wins and how the economy changes under new management
Here in Kansas City, Missouri, the NASGW Expo and Annual Meeting will bring together major manufacturers and wholesalers. The wholesalers aren't just the buyers at this show. They're the industry’s largest customers for companies that rely on the two-step distribution model.
Yesterday and today consist of individual company meetings. In those, manufacturers hold one-one-ones with their distribution partners to review product selection and sales in 2024. They’ll also discuss new products and sales programs for 2025. These closed-door meetings will likely see some frank discussions, especially for any companies whose products performed flatter than expected this year.
Exhibitors not meeting on Monday and Tuesday will have their distributor interactions in their booths Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. Last year I visited one company that showed me a new pistol “yet to be released.” It wasn’t going to be, unless they received a positive response from buyers.
That's the true variable in predicting next year’s sales. If companies roll out derivative models based on sluggish selling legacy products, or fail to price their products in accordance with the current climate, a wholesale buyer’s open-to-buy dollars might be a lot less ‘open.’
From the opposite point of view, a distributor that doesn’t closely monitor their own sales data and react accordingly could hurt both their business and the company whose product they over-or under-bought.
Distributors can make or break a company depending on how well they communicate with suppliers.
At the 2023 NASGW Expo I asked one wholesale buyer how they were surviving the slowing market, under the assumption that things were bad for them just as I had been hearing from companies.
To my surprise I learned that this distributor has a few key products, key SKUs, they watch closely in order to guide their ordering. When they saw one of those SKUs selling through to dealers at a decreasing rate they knew to “not order that next container” of that product, or presumably other products.
By using this canary in the coal mine approach they saved their year, finishing with a solid fourth quarter.
The data on sales has been an important – and valuable – focus for NASGW over the last couple years. Their NASGW SCOPE™ “is an industry-owned, distributor-led initiative to collect and analyze data that strengthens shooting sports businesses.” It’s the ongoing tracking of this data from wholesalers and retailers that 2024’s projections were based on, along with additional outside economic and political data.
SCOPE is NASGW’s own canary in the coal mine. It’s actually several canaries – not just down a single shaft, but throughout the entire mine.
Being on the ground here at the NASGW Expo means we’ll be a bit closer to those canaries, and our discussions with wholesalers and manufacturers will (hopefully) give us a glimpse of what 2025 holds for the industry.
Walking the show floor will be what the kids call a ‘vibe check.’ We’ll know later this week if it’s good vibes for 2025 of bad vibes. And, from a purely selfish point of view, what new products will be revealed.
– Paul Erhardt, Managing Editor, the Outdoor Wire Digital Network