When the NSSF’s Adjusted FBI National Criminal Background System report hit yesterday, it didn’t take long to separate pessimists from optimists. If you are positively inclined, you noticed that there was a drop, but even with that, January 2022 represented the thirtieth consecutive month of more than one million NICS checks.

If you’re not so positively inclined (looking at you Wall Street), you only saw the 42 percent decrease compared to January 2021 (1,190,856 versus 2,052,130, respectively).

Without perspective, those numbers look like there might be an impending, cataclysmic drop in sales.

The adjusted NICS numbers don’t give much insight into what guns are still in demand, but it’s safe to say the small compact handgun (top) like this Mossberg are getting plenty of attention. At the same time, the modern sporting rifle (below) numbers may have dropped, but they’re still selling well across the country. OWDN photos.

However, as the old song by the Gershwin brothers goes, “it ain’t necessarily so…” (only music newbies think Bronski Beat originated the song). Last January was a very high bar to meet, much less top.

January 2021’s numbers included three of the top-10 weeks and one top-10 single day for the highest number of NICS checks on record.

So you’d be splitting pretty fine hairs to say that the industry’s hit a slump. A slowing, maybe, but not a slowdown. If you believe demand’s not there, you need to visit a retailer and check out both the gun cabinets and ammo shelves. We’re not out of the supply-and-demand woods by a long shot.

Of course, you need to recognize that the NICS numbers represent only the number of background checks, not the actual number of guns sold, nor any corollary between new/used units or sales dollars. There are also a number of states that have at least one qualified alternative permit that allows a permit holder to purchase from licensed dealers without a separate background check.

The NSSF’s Mark Oliva has a solid perspective on the numerology -and the inferences that can be drawn from them. "The NSSF Adjusted FBI National Instant Criminal Background Check System report of 1,190,856 shows us that there is a continued interest in firearm ownership in America,” he says, “Everyone is looking for what the “new” normal will be coming off those outsized years of background checks for the purchase of a gun, January’s figure of nearly 1.2 million shows that America’s demand for lawful gun ownership continues at a healthy and sustainable pace. “

“Healthy and sustainable” - not a bad projection for any business. Now if the ammo could catch up…..

We’ll keep you posted.

— Jim Shepherd